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When You're Serious about the Future
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Analysis,
informed speculation, and agendas for action
in understanding
and guiding accelerating change |
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Universal, Global,
Societal, Organizational, and Personal
systems of change |
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Science, Tech, Environmental, Economic,
Political, and Social dialogs |
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A multidisciplinary, Big
Picture overview of global technological acceleration, universal evolutionary
development, and the range of forces and choices ahead. |
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Considering the implications, choices, and challenges of continued asymptotic
growth in local computation, which if unchecked implies a coming technological
singularity |
Editor:
John Smart. To subscribe (Free)
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Accelerating
Times (ATimes) is a multidisciplinary, systems
science exploration of the Big Picture of universal evolutionary development, technological acceleration,
and technology foresight. Let us know what you think. Newsletter is presently
on hiatus as I'm focusing on my book. (Archive).
Audio
Acceleration,
Convergence, and Human Destiny - Part 1 (90 mins) and Part
2 (90 mins) (or right click and "save link as"
for Part
1 mp3 and Part
2 mp3), John Smart, 2009. This was the last episode
of a ten-part The World Transformed series on Fast
Forward Radio, produced by futurists Phil Bowermaster
and Stephen Gordon of The
Speculist. We discuss accelerating change, convergence, unrealistic
'flying car' futures, the conversational interface, biologically inspired
computing, the evo devo universe hypothesis, inner space, the transcension
hypothesis, the Fermi Paradox, and black holes, among other things. Lots
to consider here for big picture thinkers. Let
us know your thoughts.
Six
Developments in Accelerating Change, WBAI Radio,
Arnell Dowret interviewing John Smart, 2009 (29 mins)
A fast moving interview with some thoughts on Global Transparency, the
Humbot, the Conversational Interface, the Metaverse, the Cybertwin, and
the Valuecosm. Just a few of many big developmental changes that seem
to lie directly ahead of us.
How
to Be a Tech Futurist, 2005 (67 mins)
"John Smart's talk is a perfect introduction to what he
calls the infopomorphic paradigm - a way of understanding ourselves and
the universe in terms of information theory. He examines the increasing
efficiency and density of physical-computational systems to show that
we can continue to expect what Carver Mead has called our “unreasonably
efficient” advances in the microcosm, such as the recent production
advance in carbon nanoribbons. Smart proposes that the very structure
of our universe appears organized to drive accelerating discovery and
computation in the microcosm at a rate many orders of magnitude faster
than in any other domain. This microcosmic acceleration is enabling developments
in intelligent agents and interfaces, immune systems, transparency, accountabilty,
and an emerging computational dimension to our social space. Smart expects
this will dramatically improve the quality of human life, even as it brings
new potential for misuse and abuse in its early years. He discusses the
importance of balancing both accelerating innovation and sustainable development
in the history of human civilization and makes the case for a lot more
research into apparent developmental trends. Why? They make us more accurate
forecasters and agents of change, as well as being verifiable propositions
about our future. If you have any plans to formalize your study of the
future of technology then Smart's talk is essential. Not only does he
provide an overview of the courses currently available within the US but
he also highlights the benefits of acquiring a qualification in this area."
A recording of my talk at Accelerating Change 2005. Free download
courtesy of Doug Kaye at IT Conversations.
Simulation,
Agents, & Accelerating Change: Personality Capture & the Linguistic
User Interface, 2004 (70 mins)
Big picture discussion of human society as an evolutionary developmental
system, and multidisciplinary trajectories in social and technological
change. This somewhat rambling and sometimes-too-abbreviated presentation
(sorry, but I was quite tired) concludes with a brief intro to digital
twins, personality capture, and the conversational (linguistic) user interface,
perhaps the next major paradigm shift in information and communications
technologies (ICT). While we can see evidence for this emergence even
today, I think the major phase change will occur circa 2020-2040. The
actual time to transition and its quality seems to be entirely our collective
choice. A recording of my talk at Accelerating Change 2004. Free
download courtesy of Doug Kaye at IT Conversations.
Understanding
the Singularity: Exploring Meta-Trends in Accelerating Change,
2002 (68 mins)
A wide-ranging, speculative romp through a number of issues
that may be relevant to accelerating change here on Earth. From
an introductory talk at WorldFuture 2002 (Philadelphia, PA). It is a pretty rough piece. To try to provide clarity I recorded
a few additional bits of audio in postproduction. That makes it even harder
to listen to, as there are now two vocal styles (sorry). Nevertheless,
Understanding the Singularity does provide a brief,
Big Picture overview of important issues, predictions, and scenarios
in accelerating technological change. I expect to update it eventually.
In the meantime, some may find it useful. Each track may be individually
downloaded as MP3's from the links below.
Video
Evo Devo Universe? Part
1 (55 mins). Evo
Devo Universe? Part 2 (52 mins), Bay Area Future
Salon, 2009
Videos from a presentation, with interactive Q&A, on three interesting
and potentially very useful ways of thinking about predictability
and unpredictability in the universe, and the possible meaning
and implications of accelerating change for human culture: The Informational
Physical Universe (IPU) hypothesis, the Evo Devo Universe (EDU) hypothesis,
and the Developmental Singularity (DS) hypothesis. It begins with an intro
to some of the fascinating developmental futures we seem to be
facing as a species in coming decades, then introduces the first two of
these three hypotheses. The third and most speculative topic, the DS hypothesis,
was not discussed due to time limitations, but is covered in the presentation
slides.
Foresight Development
in a World of Accelerating Change, Mendoza Coll.
of Business, U. of Notre Dame, 2009 (1 hr, 27 mins) (Video,
Slides, Summary)
A talk for MBAs and undergraduate business majors. Strategies for maximizing
American innovation, learning, and sustainability in a world of accelerating
technological change. Touches on the rising importance of good corporate
regulation, as corporations have become the dominant economic entities
since the mid-20th century. Introduces the idea that technical productivity
(TP) is far more important to measure and increase annually than such
weak proxies for true wealth as dollar flows and GDP (gross domestic product).
Scientific and technological capacity, not money, are our species primary
wealth and survival assets. While important, and important to regulate
well, our entire monetary economy is a secondary value market, and should
be understood as such. How we grow our national and global TP is the primary
and most important game we play as a species, whether we consciously recognize
it or not.
Speaking
to the Web, SIAI Video Interview (and Print
Transcript), 2007 (18 min)
Informal interview. “What I think is going to happen somewhere
around 2019 is every kid in the world is going to have a cell phone, because
they are going to be dirt cheap by then. Every kid in the world is going
to learn as fast as their curiosity drives them, just talking to Google.”
“We already know we have maybe five billion years more and then
the earth is going to get heated up by an expanding red giant sun. Intelligence
has got to leave earth. Most futurists currently think it is going into
outer space. I think that’s 180 degrees wrong. I think we are going
into inner space.”
Universal
Accelerating Change and Evo Devo, Good Ancestors Workshop,
Uplift Academy, 2007 (40 min)
A brief introduction to the interesting topics of universal accelerating
change, universal evolution (possible, reversible, choice-based change),
and universal development (probable, irreversible, constraint-based change),
and some of our individual, organizational, and social behavioral and
policy opportunities when we recognize both the beneficial developmental
processes and unpredictable evolutionary choices in front of us.
Systems
Theories of Accelerating Change (and Print
Transcript), John Smart, Singularity Summit 2006 (20 min)
Presentation with slides. "In 2006, Smart presented the
talk “Systems Theories of Accelerating Change” at the Singularity
Summit at Stanford. There he looked at accelerating change from universal,
biological, human cultural, and technological perspectives, and introduced
a few well known and unorthodox ideas in acceleration mechanics."
The
Ultimate Matrix Collection, 2004.
This DVD set ($60 at Amazon) contains two freewheeling 60-minute
documentaries discussing philosophy (Return to Source: Philosophy
and the Matrix) and science and technology futures (The Hard
Problem: The Science Behind the Fiction). I briefly discuss accelerating
change and dematerialization on the second documentary.
Books
Humanity
3000 Seminar 4 Proceedings, John Smart, 2003
(PDF, 350 pages)
Recently-released transcript of the fourth Humanity 3000 event at the
Foundation for the Future,
Bellevue, WA. Every few years the foundation invites multidisciplinarians
to discuss and debate big picture issues for the long term future of humanity
in three time frames (25 years, a challenging 250 years, and a truly humbling
1,000 years). Seminar 4 involved Dan Barker, Don Beck, Charlie Brass,
Angela Close, Carl Coon, Peter Corning, Paul Davies, Russell Genet, John
Hartung, Ronald Moore, Adriana Ocampo, Gary Schwartz, Seung-Schik Yoo,
and myself, facilitated by Sesh Velamoor, Walter Kistler, Bob Citron,
and other members and observers at the Foundation. I made a case for the
importance and challenges of adapting to accelerating technological change.
Slide
Presentations
See ASF's slide
presentations archive.
Articles
See ASF's articles
archive.
Interviews
Interview
with John Smart, June 2005. (AACC, Institute
for the Future, 3 pages. Question by Stephen Steele).
A brief outline of accelerating change, and a few implications for 21st
century humans.
Interview
with John Smart, April 2004. (USN&WR, Next
News, 2 pages. Questions by Jim Pethokoukis).
A brief chat about some of the big changes coming our way, and others
not coming our way.
Interview
with John Smart, Nov, 2003. (See also: Speculist.com,
40 pages. Questions by Phil Bowermaster).
Speculative futurism on national priorities, systems theory, MEST compression,
inner space, the limits of biotechnology, and issues in technological
development. Even discusses when you'll get your flying car. Don't hold
your breath!.
Interview
with John Smart, Aug, 2001. (Nanomagazine.com,
10 pages. Questions by Sander Olsen).
Quite speculative futurism on various topics still-neglected but centrally
important to the coming transition: autonomous technology, immune systems,
nanotechnology and the developmental singularity hypothesis.
Future
Short Stories
Future Heroes 2035: My Friends and
I, John Smart.
High school students in the CUI era. Illustrated
future scenario for teens. This was quite popular with the focus groups.
Published in Futuristics:
Looking Ahead, Vol. 1 of Tackling Tomorrow Today, Art
Shostak, Ed., 2004.
Future Heroes 2035:
The Big Picture, John Smart.
Post-singularity futurism: inner space, accelerating change and the big
picture. This is a bit harder for some teens to grok, but has some potentially
valuable longer term ideas. Published in Moving
Along: Far Ahead, Vol. 4 of Tackling Tomorrow Today, Art
Shostak, Ed., 2004.
Developmental
Futures Scenarios
Underground Automated
Highway Systems for High-Density Cities: A 2030-2060 Scenario
Thoughts on what I expect will be the next major urban transportation
revolution, after surface-level AHS.
More
Speculative Topics
The Developmental Singularity
Hypothesis
An outline and early bibliography of works and themes relevant to the
question of what autonomous intelligence must do after it emerges locally
in coming decades. From my perspective, it appears to be moving relentlessly
toward inner space, not outer space, in a process constrained by the developmental
physics of the universe. Please let me know if you know other scholars
who have reached similar conclusions.
Answering the
Fermi Paradox: Exploring Mechanisms of Universal Transcension,
June 2002. Journal of Evolution and Technology (JET), John
Smart.
I first formulated a variant of the developmental singularity hypothesis
in 1972, after reading Darwin's Voyage of the Beagle. The central
thesis is simple enough for any high school student to understand, which
makes me think it just might have a chance of being correct. I've been
refining it for 30 years, and finding an increasing number of systems
theorists who have reached similar tentative conclusions. We at ASF
look forward to scientific critique of this and other intriguing hypotheses
for the future of cosmic intelligence in coming years.
Spiritual Computation:
The 'Religious Galaxy'
Some thoughts on the spiritual dimensions of worldwide philosophical and
religious dialog, and a suggestion that integral deism and agnostic relativism
are centrally located in the phase space of spiritual belief.
Critiques or improvements? Send them to mail{at}accelerating.org.
Thank you.
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